Corn’s Tough Setup, Bean Opportunity, and the Spreads You Should Watch

The March acreage report landed with 95.3 million corn acres—right around expectations. No shock, but definitely not fuel for a rally. That number sets a high bar for weather scares to drive prices meaningfully higher, especially with planting conditions looking favorable across much of the Corn Belt.

Meanwhile, soybeans may be flying under the radar—and that’s exactly what makes them interesting. Add in century-low wheat plantings, low implied volatility, and fund positioning, and this spring’s marketing landscape is shaping up to be less about price action and more about smart setups.

Corn: Not Bad, Just Not Bullish

The 95.3M acre figure isn’t a disaster—but it also doesn’t leave much room for error. If weather cooperates, the trade will lean heavily on that number all spring. That means it’s time to stop hoping for a rally and start planning for narrow windows. This is the kind of setup that demands preparation—not just orders at the elevator, but a true framework for how to handle upside, downside, and everything in between.

There may still be short-term bullish opportunities, especially early in the season if planting delays show up. But they’ll likely be short-lived and require quick action. That’s why Jon’s pushing early planning and position sizing—particularly for those considering spreads or courage calls.

Soybeans: The Quiet Setup with Real Potential

If there’s one market that could sneak higher this summer, it’s soybeans.

Why?

• Acreage is down from last year..

• Funds are heavily short.

• Implied volatility is lower than expected making options attractive

Jon calls this a “courage call” setup: you’re not betting the farm, but you’re giving yourself a cheap way to participate in a surprise move—especially if summer heat shows up or volatility spikes.

He’s not telling everyone to rush out and buy calls. But if you want low-risk exposure to upside, this is a market to watch daily from here on out and look for opportunities.

Wheat: Lowest Plantings Since 1919—Now What?

All wheat plantings are at the lowest level in over 100 years, with Minneapolis wheat at its lowest since 1970. That’s not just trivia—that’s a setup. Spreads between wheat and corn or wheat and beans are likely to shift. And with dry conditions already showing up in the western Plains, this market has a lot of unknowns heading into May.

Jon’s watching Kansas wheat vs. Minneapolis, and wheat/corn spreads across a variety of contracts. These aren’t set-it-and-forget-it trades—but if you’re active, they could offer significant edge, especially if dryness lingers.

Cattle: Options Are Cheap, But That’s Not Always a Gift

Low implied volatility has some producers looking to buy cheap puts or calls in cattle. The problem? Cheap options only work if you know when to get out. 

It’s not about being right on direction—it’s about getting rewarded when you are. And that’s not easy when time decay and fading volatility are stacked against you. Their advice: if you’re using options, plan your exits before you enter. Otherwise, even good trades can turn into losses.

The Strategy Window Is Opening—Briefly

The most important point of the episode? The next 8 to 12 weeks often matter more than any other stretch during the marketing year. Whether it’s spreads, options, HTAs, or flat-price sales—decisions made in April, May, and June often define the year’s revenue.

If you haven’t started planning yet, now’s the time. You don’t need to have every order in place, but you should be running the math, sketching out scenarios, and staying close to market moves. It’s not about forecasting. It’s about preparation.

Key Takeaways:

• Beans could move fast if weather or volatility shifts. Cheap calls offer smart exposure.

• Wheat is quietly setting up for spread action or calls—watch the dryness.

• Cheap options are a trap unless you know your exit.

• This spring’s marketing success will come from having a plan before the market moves.

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Final WordThere’s a lot of noise in the market right now—but buried in that noise is real opportunity. The producers who come out ahead won’t be the ones who guessed right. They’ll be the ones who were ready.

You don’t have to know the future. You just need to be prepared for it.