Coulda, shoulda, woulda—what’s the next move?
- Ryan Tungseth
- Mar 20
- 2 min read
The Market is Messy. The Opportunity is in the Chaos.
There’s no shortage of uncertainty right now. Whether it’s grain markets searching for a bottom, cattle traders navigating high prices, or energy markets throwing curveballs, it’s easy to get caught up in what could have been. But here’s the reality: yesterday’s market is gone—success comes from what you do next.
This week, we’re breaking down key opportunities in grain, livestock, and energy, helping you stay ahead of the game.
Oil and Energy: The Wildcard for 2024
Traders betting on oil stability just got a harsh reminder: this market is anything but predictable.
Unexpected Tariffs & Policy Shifts: Recent moves on Canadian imports caught many off guard, shaking up expectations for fuel prices.
Energy Markets & Ag Production Costs: If fuel costs spike into planting season, what does that mean for input costs and grain movement?
For those managing risk, this isn’t just about oil—it’s about the ripple effect across commodities. Hedging strategies should factor in these shifting energy trends.
Courage Calls: Are We in the Right Setup?
With grain markets in a period of uncertainty, traders are looking for ways to hedge upside risk without locking in at the wrong time. This is where courage calls come into play.
Why they matter now: Summer volatility often brings unexpected price moves. Buying calls early can provide upside coverage.
Which month? Historically, July calls can fizzle too soon, while September options have captured better weather-driven upside.
The key here isn’t to predict the market—it’s to structure a trade that lets you stay flexible and manage risk.
Cattle Market: Strong, but at What Cost?
Even as grains struggle, cattle prices have refused to back down.
Feeder prices remain aggressive: Buyers at the sale barn aren’t hesitating, but at what point does the math stop making sense?
Cash vs. Futures Confusion: The futures market is still trying to figure out whether this rally is sustainable.
Risk Management in High-Priced Markets: When inputs are expensive, traders need to be sharper than ever with hedging strategies.
Wheat: The Sleeper Market That Could Wake Up
Wheat doesn’t always get the headlines, but dry conditions in key growing areas are starting to raise concerns.
Northern Plains moisture deficit: If drought trends persist, we could see a supply-side squeeze develop.
Market structure shift: The wheat-corn spread is tightening—will this continue?
Every year, wheat sits quietly—until it doesn’t. This could be one of those years.
Final Takeaway: Don’t Get Stuck in the Past
The markets are uncertain, but that’s nothing new. What separates successful traders from the rest is the ability to stay opportunistic and adjust when the time is right.
🎧 Listen to this week’s episode of Hedge Heads for the full breakdown.